This paper applies a macroeconomic-based model for estimating probabilities of default. The first part of the paper focuses on the relation between macroeconomic variables and the default behavior of Dutch firms. A convincing relationship with GDP growth and oil price and, to a lesser extent, the interest and exchange rate exists. The second part of the paper assesses the default behavior based…
Essential Mathematics for Economics and Business is established as one of the leading introductory textbooks on mathematics for students of business and economics. Combining a user–friendly approach to mathematics with practical applications to the subjects, the text provides students with a clear and comprehensible guide to mathematics. The fundamental mathematical concepts are explained in …
Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on …
The aftermath of the global economic breakdown in 2008-9 underscores the risks facing Southeast Asia's growth prospects. Although the region has demonstrated exceptional resilience to external shocks emanating from economic powerhouses around the globe, Southeast Asia is in dire need of an optimal policy mix of macroeconomic and trade policy measures that differ by country, underpin domestic de…
Salah satu kisah fenomenal tentang kredit mikro adalah Grameen Bank di Bangladesh yang dimotori Muhammad Yunus. Di tengah kesulitan masyarakat mendapatkan akses keuangan karena tidak bankable, Yunus berinisiatif memfasilitasi kredit mikro untuk rakyat miskin tanpa agunan dan menggunakan sistem tanggung renteng. Di negara itu, gagasan Yunus terbukti mampu meningkatkan kondisi ekonomi rumah tangg…
Preparing to pass the family business on to the next generation is perhaps the roughest and most critical challenge facing business owners. Yet most businesses don't realize that succession is a lifelong process of planning and management. Leaders will learn how to create a succession plan; how to develop opportunities for succession candidates; how to build consensus with the family and lead…
Just as contemporary economics failed to predict the 2008-09 crash, and over-estimated the subsequent brief recovery that followed, economists today are again failing to accurately forecast the slowing global economic growth, the growing fragility, and therefore rising instability in the global economy. This book offers a new approach to explaining why mainstream economic anal…